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Article for Batters Box

It is time to plan the minor league rosters for 2005. When I asked Dick Scott how he allocated the players to the teams he acknowledged that he first places his top prospects and then fills around them. He also said that 90% of the decisions are made before the players report in the spring; so let's see how we would do it if it was our call.

I will start with some of the September call-ups and then move on to Jordan's list of top 30 prospects.

Russ Adams will be with the Blue Jays
Gabe Gross will be playing in AAA
Guillermo Quiroz will be catching in AAA
Eric Crozier will be manning first base in AAA
Gustavo Chacin will likely be in the Syracuse rotation
Brandon League will probably be in the bullpen in Toronto

We need to understand the bullpen in Toronto. At this writing we have Jason Frasor; Justin Speier; Kerry Ligtenberg; Vinnie Chulk; Justin Miller; Billy Koch; Scott Schoeneweiss; and Brandon League takes us to eight in the pen. At least one of these pitchers will be bumped to AAA. This assumes that pitchers such as Scott Downs and Chad Gaudin go to Syracuse, if they do not then someone else will be dropped down.

On to Jordan's top 30....

Prospect #1, Aaron Hill will move up to play shortstop in AAA after holding his own in AA in 2004
#2, Josh Banks spent half a season at AA; he started slowly at AA but improved as the season moved into August. I would send Banks back to AA to start the season. Remember Banks will still be 22 on opening day, so he is still young for his level
#4, Francisco Rosario improved at the end of the season and was good, in stretches, in the AFL. He is still developing consistency and control so I would send him back to AA for at least a half season.
#5, Shaun Marcum pitched well in Dunedin and will move up to AA
#7, Dustin McGowan should be back and ready to go. I would start him in Dunedin to take advantage of the better weather
#8, Jamie Vermilyea will move to AAA and be in the bullpen there. The Syracuse pen will be crowded but I don't think Vermilyea has anything left to prove at AA
#9, John Hattig will move up to AAA following a full year of AA and a stint in the AFL
#10, David Purcey will make the traditional 1st round pick jump to High A Dunedin
#11, Adam Peterson was traded
#12, Vito Chiaravalloti will move up to AA after a full season at High A
#13, Raul Tablado will move up with Vito. I will keep him at shortstop, even though he might not end up there. Rob Cosby will play third and I will keep Tablado at short for as long as I can
#14, Robinson Diaz will move up to Dunedin
#15, Vince Perkins will pitch in AA after an injury filled season in High A and stints in the instructional league and the AFL
#16, Davis Romero made a mid season move into the rotation at Charleston; he will start in Dunedin in 2005
#17, Ismael Ramirez has been in High A for parts of three seasons, he will jump to AA
#18, Curtis Thigpen will move to A. In previous years Russ Adams and Aaron Hill jumped straight to High A, but Robinson Diaz is there and Thigpen needs to play; unless the Jays want to use a tandem catching rotation at Dunedin
#19, Carlo Cota will move up to play second base in AA after moving ahead of Ryan Roberts on the depth chart in the second half of 2004
#20, Ryan Roberts struggled some after his promotion to High A, I will leave Ryan in Dunedin to play second base.
#21, Miguel Negron will move up to AA
#22, Ron Davenport will also move to AA
#23, Tom Mastny has been traded
#24, John-Ford Griffin will go to AAA where he will patrol left field, Crozier is ahead of him at first base. Another option for the Jays would be to switch Crozier and Griffin between first and left; neither would be above average in left but if either of them can play there it would increase their value
#25, Jason Arnold will return to AAA for another, possibly final, shot
#26, Chi-hung Cheng is still young and will head for extended spring training and then to Auburn
#27, Bubbie Buzachero will get his shot at AA
#28, Adam Lind will make the big jump to high A, he and Thigpen were the leading hitters at Auburn in 2004 but there is outfield room, whereas Diaz is ahead of Thigpen
#29, Yuber Rodriguez will jump from Rookie ball to A
#30, Jordan DeJong will continue up to AAA

We have a couple of extra players:
Zack Jackson who Baseball America listed as the Jays #8 prospect will accompany Purcey to Dunedin
Rob Cosby, who blew out his knee last April, after a fast start at AA, will take up where he left off in AA
DJ Hanson, who missed all of 2004 will start in Dunedin

Here is what we have:

            AAA             AA            High A          A
C         Quiroz                          Diaz          Thigpen
1B        Crozier       Chiaravalloti    
2B                      Cota              Roberts
SS        Hill          Tablado          
3B        Hattig        Cosby
LF        Griffin       Davenport         Lind
CF                      Negron                          Y. Rodriguez
RF        Gross         

SP1       Arnold        Banks             Purcey
SP2       Chacin        Marcum            McGowan
SP3                     Perkins           Jackson
SP4                     Ramirez           Romero
SP5                     Rosario           Hanson
 
RP1       Vermilyea     Buzachero         
RP2       DeJong

These are the top prospects and by inference the strongest players. The New Hamsphire rotation looks pretty good, and the Dunedin rotation is not bad either.

In part two tomorrow we will look at the minor league free agents and the open spots.

Yesterday we slotted the top prospects into slots in the minor league teams. Now we have to look at the gaps. The biggest question mark as I see it is the pitching roster in AAA. Yesterday we slotted two starters, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Arnold, and two relievers, Jamie Vermilyea and Jordan DeJong.

To add to these five pitchers we have one player dropping down from the major league pitchers I listed yesterday, it could be Brandon League or Justin Miller. I will say Miller. Then we add hold-overs from 2004: Cameron Reimers; Ryan Glynn; Josue Matos and Mike Smith to give us ten pitchers.

Over the winter the Jays added ten pitchers on waivers or as free agents, namely: Seong Song; Chad Gaudin; Steve Andrade; Scott Downs; Mike Nannini; Adrian Burnside; Spike Lundberg; Matt Whiteside; Pete Walker; and Jesse Carlson to give us twenty candidates. Then we add some AA pitchers who deserve a promotion: Ryan Houston; Dan Jackson and maybe Chris Baker; plus the two pitchers selected in the rule 5 draft, Lee Gronkiewicz; and Milton Tavarez. Now we have 25 pitchers and a log-jam. We have twelve spots in AAA, say six spots in AA and I will assume three pitchers on the DL, total 21. Most of these pitchers have AAA experience and a demotion to AA would not be a happy day.

I will place Ryan Glynn and Cameron Reimers in the starting rotation, they have been starters throughout their careers. I will put Seong Song at the fifth starter position. All other pitchers are bullpen material. Vermilyea and DeJong should be joined by Scott Downs, Spike Lundberg, Pete Walker, Justin Miller and Matt Whiteside.

Other gaps:

At AAA Jason Alfaro, Bryant Nelson and Julius Matos will cover second base and utility infielder. There might not be a spot for Dominic Rich. Anton French will take the CF spot with Anthony Sanders and Chad Mottola signed for DH and backup.

At AA Tim Whittaker or John Schneider will catch. Mikael Jova or Justin Singleton will play RF. Mike Snyder should repeat AA as a backup first baseman and DH.

At Dunedin Clint Johnston and/or Joey Reiman will play first, Juan Peralta short, and Eric Arnold at third. David Smith and Christian Snavely will be in the outfield with Jayce Tingler.

The starting rotation at Dunedin is full, so there is no room for Justin James or Danny Core to start. Jordy Templett and Tracey Thorpe would hope to jump up to AA but with the large number of pitchers above them they might not get the chance. Andy Torres, Brian Reed and Chad Pleiness will also return to Dunedin, although Pleiness could be squeezed out.

Lansing will have most of the 2004 draft class, plus Kurt Isenberg and Jermy Acey. The Jays still have a lot of second basemen, Cota at AA; Roberts at High A; and Brian Hall at A. Where does Acey fit into this picture? There is no room for Isenberg in Dunedin so he has another turn in A.

            AAA             AA            High A          A
C         Quiroz        Whittaker         Diaz          Thigpen
1B        Crozier       Chiaravalloti     Johnston      Cannon
2B        Nelson        Cota              Roberts       Hall
SS        Hill          Tablado           Peralta       Klosterman
3B        Hattig        Cosby             Arnold        Esposito
LF        Griffin       Davenport         Lind          Mathews
CF        French        Negron            Smith         Y. Rodriguez
RF        Gross         Jova              Snavely       Neilsen

Bench/DH  Alfaro        Singleton         Reiman        Mangioni
          Matos         Snyder            Tingler       Metropoulus
          Sanders       Hassey            Dragicevich   Armstrong
          Huckaby
          Mottola

SP1       Chacin        Banks             Purcey        MacDonald
SP2       Arnold        Marcum            McGowan       Janssen
SP3       Glynn         Perkins           Jackson       Isenberg
SP4       Reimers       Ramirez           Romero        Perez
SP5       Song          Rosario           Hanson        Leonard
 
RP1       Vermilyea     Buzachero         Reed          Hill
RP2       Whiteside     Houston           James         Rico
RP3       DeJong        Jackson           Core          Harper
RP4       Lundberg      Carlson           Thorpe        Mumma
RP5       Downs         Tavarez           Torres        McKenzie
RP6       Miller
RP7       Walker

TBD - Hitters: Rich; Acey; Medina
TBD - Pitchers: Nannini; Gaudin; Andrade; Burnside; Matos; Smith; Baker; Walker; Gronkiewicz; Ogiltree; Pleiness; Templett; Tate; Day; Yates; McLaughlin

The Jays do have a lot of arms coming in to spring training, it will be tough for them all to get enough work in the spring and it will be tough for Dick Scott to place them all. Look for some trades or a lot of sore arms at the end of spring training.

Created on ... November 23, 2003